Ziegler's 2026 CCRC Default Study, published in April, offers some reassuring news: no new payment defaults have occurred so far in 2026, and Ziegler is monitoring fewer at-risk providers than usual. The firm expects defaults to remain low for at least the next two years.
The study covers $71.2 billion in bond debt issued by 786 not-for-profit CCRCs since 1990. The net default rate (recovery-adjusted) is just 2.8%, with average recoveries of about 63 cents on the dollar. Most defaulted communities continued operating through restructuring or sale to another operator.
But there's a cautionary trend: defaults have shifted from start-up communities to mature, long-standing communities — and COVID pushed some larger multi-site systems into default, a previously rare event. Prior defaults are most often resolving through facility sales.
For residents, the question is whether your community's leadership has openly discussed debt levels and financial resilience. Does your resident council have visibility into bond covenants or financial indicators?
Read the full study here:
https://www.ziegler.com/media/ivpfmkbp/sl_znews_042726.pdf